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The - Segolene factor - starting to take hold, French News, Expatica France

The 'Segolene factor' starting to take hold

16th March 2006 , 0 comments

PARIS, March 15, 2006 (AFP) - After shining in the opinion polls since the start of the year, French Socialist Ségolène Royal is pulling in the endorsements and is now firmly ensconced as the left-wing favourite for next year's presidential election.

PARIS, March 15, 2006 (AFP) - After shining in the opinion polls since the start of the year, French Socialist Ségolène Royal is pulling in the endorsements and is now firmly ensconced as the left-wing favourite for next year's presidential election.

As potential candidates on the right lose points — largely thanks to the wave of protests over Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin's contested youth jobs contract — Royal's popularity ratings remain strong, with some 60 percent of the public saying they could vote for her.

The so-called 'Segolene factor' has become a feature of the political scene.

Last Sunday when Privas — a small town in the south of France — swung to the left for the first time in a century in a local election, it was Royal's decision to canvas there on behalf of the Socialist Party (PS) candidate that was deemed to have tipped the balance.

A clear sign of the 52 year-old's establishment as a serious contender for next year's presidential vote is the growing number of well-known figures who have come out in her support.

The most symbolic of these is Jacques Attali, an adviser to the late president François Mitterrand during his 1981 campaign victory. Attali has said he is "at her disposal".

Also backing Royal is Daniel Cohn-Bendit, Green Euro-deputy and leader of the May 1968 student movement, who says he likes her because she "shows up traditional French politicians as the old-fashioned creatures they are".

Royal's electoral machine is slowly being put into place, with an Internet site called 'Desires for the Future' run from her office in the National Assembly. Some 30,000 Internet users have signed on there, and several blogs are also singing her praises.

Elegant and smiling, Royal is everywhere these days: in the morning on the television or radio, in the afternoon in the provinces to meet party workers, the next day travelling abroad to Chile, Italy or Austria.

And everywhere she is followed now by journalists — as many in fact as trail the man who could be her main rival next year: Interior Minister Nicolas Sarkozy.

President of the western Poitou-Charentes region and a former minister, mother of four children and partner of the Socialist Party's First Secretary François Hollande, Royal still has a major challenge on her hands to bring round the powers-that-be inside her own party.

"No-one here would have bet on her six months ago," one senior PS member said on condition of anonymity. "But the idea of Ségolène being candidate is no longer a joking matter."

For political scientist Dominique Reynie, Royal "embodies a need for renewal on the left. She is not a flash in the pan, but mind you her real test is only just beginning."

Inside her party, Royal must face up against heavyweights like former ministers Laurent Fabius, Dominique Strauss-Kahn and Jack Lang — all of whom are determined to stay in the race for the PS candidacy.

All three are crisscrossing the country as part of a party membership drive ahead of an internal vote in November or December to determine the PS's choice.

While the misogynist remarks initially made about Royal's candidacy have all but disappeared, her rivals accuse her above all of having no structured project.

Royal stirred passions when she told a British newspaper recently of her admiration for Tony Blair - a man held in contempt by much of the French left — though she later told the communist daily L'Humanité of her unflagging attachment to "the achievements of the left."

Subject: French news

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What you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts - это

What you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts это:

Универсальный англо-русский словарь . Академик.ру . 2011 .

Смотреть что такое "What you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts" в других словарях:

swings and roundabouts — A situation in which advantages and disadvantages cancel each other out • • • Main Entry: ↑swing * * * swings and roundabouts british informal phrase used for describing a situation that has advantages and disadvantages Thesaurus: partly good and … Useful english dictionary

swings and roundabouts — If something s swings and roundabouts, it has about as many disadvantages as it has advantages. (Dorking School Dictionary) *** This expression means that there are as many advantages as there are disadvantages, or what is lost in one… … English Idioms & idiomatic expressions

lose — see what you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts you cannot lose what you never had a bleating sheep loses a bite lend your money and lose your friend the sun loses nothing by shining into a puddle a tale … Proverbs new dictionary

gain — noun see one man’s loss is another man’s gain there’s no great loss without some gain no pain, no gain verb see what you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts nothing venture, nothing gain … Proverbs new dictionary

it's swings and roundabouts — British & Australian, British & Australian something that you say to describe a situation in which there are as many advantages as there are problems. If you make more money, you have to pay more tax, so what we gain on the swings, we lose on the … New idioms dictionary

Australian federal election, 2007 — Infobox Election election name = Australian federal election, 2007 country = Australia type = parliamentary ongoing = no previous election = Australian federal election, 2004 previous year = 2004 next election = Next Australian federal election… … Wikipedia

Oxford Dictionary of Proverbs, Thematic Index — absence absence makes the heart grow fonder he who is absent is always in the wrong the best of friends must part blue are the hills that are far away distance lends enchantment to the view out of sight, out of mind … Proverbs new dictionary

roundabout — see what you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts … Proverbs new dictionary

swing — see what you lose on the swings you gain on the roundabouts … Proverbs new dictionary

Almost Every Swing State Is A ‘Must Win’ For Trump Now, FiveThirtyEight

Almost Every Swing State Is A ‘Must Win’ For Trump Now But if the race tightens, that will change.

The impact of the three presidential debates — particularly the first — has borne itself out in the polls in many ways. Hillary Clinton won the first debate decisively, jumped out to a 5 or 6 percentage point lead nationally, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-only model, and hasn’t dropped below that threshold since. As a result, Donald Trump’s options in the Electoral College have been significantly narrowed; Clinton’s have proliferated.

You can see Trump’s deteriorating map clearly by looking at how our “must win” numbers have shifted. A week before the first debate, both Trump and Clinton had certain “must win” states. That is, according to our polls-only model, there were a number of swing states (as indicated by our tipping-point calculation) where Clinton and Trump won the election in the vast majority of cases where they won that state.

All values are percentages. FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast as of Sept. 19.

Before the first debate, our forecast showed Clinton winning the election more than 90 percent of the time she was able to defeat Trump in Florida and North Carolina, for example. Trump was forecasted to beat Clinton about 90 percent of the time when he won in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Put another way, Florida and North Carolina are slightly red-leaning states, so if Trump loses them, he’s most likely losing the election. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are light blue, so if Clinton is losing there, she’s likely to lose overall.

You’ll further note that Clinton’s percentage chance of winning the election if she won a certain state generally ran close to Trump’s in the aggregate. Across these 14 states, Clinton’s chance of winning the election if she won a given state averaged 83 percent. Trump’s chance of winning the election averaged 79 percent. That was indicative of a relatively tight race, with Clinton having a slight advantage.

Now take a look at these same 14 states as they stand with 11 days to Election Day. Clinton’s chances of winning the election if she wins a given swing state average 92 percent. Trump averages only 60 percent.

All values are percentages. FiveThirtyEight polls-only forecast as of 11 a.m. on Oct. 28

This decline for Trump tells us that there’s no magic bullet for him in terms of the electoral map anymore. Clinton has many more paths to victory. She can afford to lose any of these 14 states and still have somewhere between a 21 percent and 64 percent chance of winning. There’s not a single state now where Trump wins the Electoral College in at least 80 percent of the simulations if he wins that state. Back in September, Trump won at least 90 percent of our simulations if he won anyone of three states: Michigan, Minnesota or Wisconsin.

Trump now has five states, on the other hand, that if he doesn’t win, he loses the election 95 percent of the time or more. Some of these are generally understood to be states more friendly to him, such as Iowa and Ohio. They also include, however, Florida and North Carolina where he is currently trailing in most of the polling. Clinton actually still wins in a majority of our simulations in which she loses one of these.

This difference between what winning either of these states means for Clinton and Trump is something you should keep in mind going forward. Florida and North Carolina are important not because Trump’s winning them means he’s going to win the election. Rather, Florida and North Carolina are important because a Trump victory in either of them indicates that we have a more competitive race nationally. A loss by Trump in either one probably means the polls are right, and Clinton is going to win the election.

But comparing Trump’s and Clinton’s “must-win” numbers from before the first debate and now also illustrates a danger for Clinton. Trump has few paths in the Electoral College because he’s losing nationally by 5 or 6 percentage points, not because there’s anything inherent about the map that favors Clinton. Almost all the swing states are now “must win” for him, but if the race tightens, that will change.

Harry Enten is a senior political writer and analyst for FiveThirtyEight. @forecasterenten

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Auburn-Arkansas opening betting line quickly sees significant swing

french news reader loses bet must swing

Auburn-Arkansas opening betting line quickly sees significant swing

Public support for the Arkansas Razorbacks may be waning following the humbling 41-9 loss at Alabama on Saturday.

The opening line of this week’s Auburn-Arkansas game was Auburn favored by 13, and it’s quickly moved to 14.5 points, according to Vegas Insider. Bettors apparently believe the Tigers can bounce back from the disappointing loss LSU more so than the Razorbacks keep it close.

The over-under at 54.5 points. High-scoring games have been a theme this season in Arkansas games as the winning team has topped at least 40 points in all but one game.

The game is set for 6:30 p.m. on Saturday and will be televised on the SEC Network.

Week 8 SEC Quarterback Rankings: Young signal-callers swap spots in top four Recent Articles

WATCH: High school coach in hot water after punching player in stomach

Ranking the SEC's Top 10 performances from Week 7

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Swing Trading For Beginners - Learn Swing Trading Strategy

Swing Trading For Beginners

Best Advice - Swing Trading For Beginners

I made another list that I think you would find helpful, this particular list summarizes the best tips for swing traders who are just starting out.

I wish someone made a list similar to this one about 18 years ago or so. Unfortunately, most traders who began in the early nineties had to learn by trial and error. Swing Trading was very new back then, day trading just took off a few years prior, so it was a brand new world that no one knew quite well. There were a few swing trading for beginners books and they were not very useful in practicality. There were advertisements for shops all over the city that taught day trading.

The problem with the business model was the owners themselves did not know much about trading and as a result could not teach the students how to trade. So it was loser watching loser and no one made money. These shops quickly went out of business and if you recall one shop went out with a bang when the Atlanta shooting happened. That was the first report of someone targeting traders, which pushed lot's of publicity in that direction. I don't remember the exact year this happened, but it was in the 90's.

Now getting back to today's topic, and discuss swing trading for beginners.

1. Always go in the direction of the major trend - Yes you have heard this over and over again, but let me give you specifics. Sit across the room and see if you can see which direction the market is moving, only take trades in the direction of that trend. This is an old rule provided by Ed Sekota from Market Wizards book.

There are many other ways to determine if markets are trending one way or another. You could use a simple 50 day moving average and see what side the trend is on, this is usually the side you want to be on.

Don't swing trade against the main trend, even when trades go against you, they tend to gravitate towards the main trend, so going in that direction from the start can save a bad trade from being a loser and will increase the odds of trades going your way.

If you don't believe me, take a look at a stock that's heading down sharply and wait till a positive story comes out. The stock will rally for a few days, act like it's moving up and then fall once again in the direction of the main trend.

This doesn't happen every time but it happens often enough where it's far from random, if it was random there would be very few trends and if you look at most markets there is typically a long term bias or direction that the market tends to favor. That's the side you want to be one at all times.

2. Don't trade dead markets - Swing traders and day traders make money when markets are volatile. Trading without volatility is like trying to drive a sports car in bumper to bumper traffic, it doesn't go anywhere.

Good trading set ups need good volatility, therefore you need to avoid trading during holiday seasons, before earnings announcements, during the lunch session and all other times when markets are dead.

There is an exception to this rule, some swing trading methods rely on short term support and resistance levels. These setups occur specifically when markets are dead and many traders make a career trading these setups. You wait till markets are completely dead and wait till they develop a high low pattern. Then you scalp or short term trade for a few ticks back and forth, this is the only exception to this rule.

To determine if markets are dead or not simply look at the volume and see if the average volume is similar to the volume for the last 5 trading sessions. Don't forget to check your schedule for news and reports, this is the number one source of short term volatility for swing traders and day traders.

While we are on this topic, make sure your market has a reasonable spread between bid and offer; this will play a vital role, especially if you are quickly jumping in and out of the market several times per week.

Note: no swing trading for beginners guide would be complete if I didn't warn you that - Many markets such as illiquid stocks and NY commodities have terribly wide spreads and should be avoided like the plaque.

3.Trade both sides of the market - Many swing trading for beginners books recommend that traders only trade the long side till they are comfortable trading both sides of the market. Unfortunately, you will never feel comfortable trading the short side till you actually start doing it. It doesn't work any other way. You have to trade the short side as often as the long side.

There have been many opportunities when I was starting out when markets would turn on a dime and reverse direction. I would liquidate my long position but would never initiate the short and would lose out on extremely valuable opportunities.

Remember, markets drop 3 times faster they rise, because fear is a stronger emotion than greed, therefore you literally will lose 50 percent of your opportunities by avoiding the short side of the market you trade.

4. Always pay attention to correlation - When I began trading I was following many stocks that were part of the same industry group, mainly tech stocks.

No one ever told me that these stocks have a correlation to the market of about 70 percent and about 80 percent to each other so if you were trading AMAT and KLAC (two big chip makers) you were trading virtually twice your position size, because these two stocks were so highly correlated.

Keep in mind trading highly correlated stocks is the same thing as doubling your position size. Don't do it, make sure you do simple correlation analysis and make the stocks you trading or the markets you are trading do not have a high degree of correlation to each other.

If you would like more information about swing trading for beginners, please visit us at Market Geeks.

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