I see the below statement in a variate of forms written all over the internet. Its gotten to the point where its has been said so many times it’s now not even questioned and taken as fact.
“Single bets are the only way to be a successful sports betting punter, stay away from accumulators, parlays and multiples.”
I’m just going to get this off my chest straight away as it grates on me every time I see it written. This statement is completely wrong and shows a complete lack of understanding in the betting basics of value betting, staking plans and money management. Along with a shocking level of maths that anyone who is old enough to bet should have acquired in even the slackest of education systems.
Now saying that I’m not suggesting you go and perm all your bets into 10-fold accumulators. No, but you should get a grasp of the mentioned betting basics and the maths we’ll go through in this article. You should also not believe everything you read on the internet, as a lot of content will be regurgitated waffle, written by people that were too lazy to do the research into the statements they are making – and the gambling niche is worse than most for this.So why do bookies continually push multiple bets over singles?
It’s a fair question after what I have just stated. Bookmakers are always trying to lure you away from single bets with promotions such as accumulator boosts and enhanced trebles. They surly aren’t going to do this if multiple bets hold any advantage to punters over single bets.
Well I’ll show you why they want you to place multiple bets and explain why for the exact same reason you should add it to your betting arsenal – if you are serious about your betting.
I hope if you have made it this far into the article you have also taken the time to read what value is. Bookies sure know what it is, and their intention is to lay every bet with the value in their favour. Value is given to them in the form of an inbuilt margin in their odds. This margin can give them value of anywhere from zero percent upward (zero percent is unlikely to be deliberately given unless with part of a promotion or the bookmaker is trying to offset their liability). The size of the inbuilt margin also depends on the sport, betting market and the odds range of the selection.
With the belief that they are on the right side of value in a bet, bookmakers now know that the basic maths of multiplying value together results in a better profit long term. At this point it is probably best to show an example to highlight the issue.
To get a clear understanding this example will have to be done over a series of bets. Bookmakers aren’t overly concerned with a single bet and except that some days theyll win and some days lose. But they are in this game for the long term and as long as they are up more than they are down they can pay their bills. A mind set many punters struggle to get their heads around.
Keeping it simple we will look at a series of even money bets (decimal 2.0 or 50% change of winning). This is the true odds of the bet winning. The bookmaker you are betting with offers odds of 1.95 for each of these bets. You, the punter, place £10 on each of these bets. The below table shows a snap of shot what you’d expected to happen over a series of eight singles, doubles and trebles in this situation.
So for singles you’d expect to win one of every two bets. Winning bets would return £19.50 which would be a profit of £9.50. And obviously losing bets will result in a loss of £10.
As you can see, if you are a losing customer, then yes, place only single bets. This way you will lose your money at a slower rate. This is made even more evident in the graph over a series of 100.
But the whole point of being on a site like this is to be a winning punter. And once you have found an edge over the bookies the tables are turned. Now if you do multiples instead of singles your value is multiplied instead of being added together. To see how this works in your favour let’s do the same as before but this time say you are getting odds of 2.05 on selections that should be evens (2.0).
The table and graph now clearly shows how putting your bets in multiples grows your profit faster than it would in singles.
Now you are aware of the benefits of multiplying value it’s probably best to now reign in your enthusiasm before you go and make all your bets accumulators. And this is where knowledge of staking plans and money management come in. Because none of us have an unlimited betting bank and these examples given assume a perfect strike rate, which doesn’t happen in real world applications.
In reality variance plays a very key role in betting and dictates how much of your betting bank you should be betting on a particular odds range. This also depends on your staking plan of course, and if I was to recommend a plan I’d say go with a conservative version of Kelly criterion.
We all know that a mug bet can come good; it’s also true that the best bets can fail. In knowing by how much good bets can fail, it’ll let us know whether it’s wise to also be multiplying these bets together. Let’s look at how variance would come into play in the examples we have been using – singles, doubles and trebles at even money.
What does this mean? What is clearly shown is that the perfect 50 wins and 50 loses out of a 100 bets only happens about 8% of the time when punting at odds of even. And nearly 1% of the time you will have 10 fewer winners than you would expect.
Can your betting bank handle such as hit? Now I understand that many people top up the amount they can bet from time to time as most people starting out gambling with still have full time jobs – so you are only a month away from a little extra disposable income. Don’t think like this. Always bet under the assumption that the amount you can bet with is what your betting bank currently stands at, and not what it will become on pay day.
In the example we have been using that means your betting bank is likely to £100 less than it should be, at some point. And its also likely to be much greater than it should be.
Now of course variances will even itself out over time, but that’s of no consequence to you if you have already gone bust before the winners start rolling in. The best advice is to air on the side of caution when starting out betting, you’ll soon learn what the best staking amount is for you if you keep good records of all your bets.
For doubles and trebles, variance shows pretty much the same sort of pattern, although over 100 bets the swing is likely to be less than that of singles (from the amount of expected winners). But to highlight what this does to your betting bank, let’s see what the impact is of having ten more losers than expected.
Simple I hear you say, ten losers is £100 down whether it’s singles, doubles or trebles. It doesn’t matter how many selection there are, if you’re betting £10, ten losers is £100. And you’re right, but the main difference is what the betting bank balance should be. Because it’s not just what you lost, it’s also what you have now failed to win.
This table shows you the massive difference ten extra losers (from the expected amount of 50 for singles, 25 for doubles and 12.5 for trebles) does to your betting bank using the example 2.05 odds above. The numbers get frightening pretty quickly. You must assume this can happen, not lose your bottle and account for it in your staking and betting bank strategy.
Clearly this information leads to a very straight forward bit of advice. Although multiplying value has a big benefit, it is best to only be used when you have a selection of bets in the sub even money range – Unless you have a massive betting bank.Some other key points Multiple boosts
Many bookmaker now also offer multiple boosts on accumulator bets.
You’ll have to read the terms and conditions of the particular site before seeing if this promotion will have a benefit to your betting system, as there are usually some restrictions such as bets must be on certain betting markets, top tier events or even a minimum odds range.
But if you are lucky and your system bets comply by all their rules you now have the potential to grow your betting bank at an even faster rate than single bets.Risk management teams
Risk management is a massive pain for people trying to make money out of betting. Some bookies have big teams and great tools to catch arbitrage bettors and bonus abusers. But when it comes to catching, and then limiting, shrewd punters it can be a little trickier for them.
What they will look for is people always taking top or out of line prices and always betting singles – as everyone has been told this is what smart bettors solely rely on.
Throw in a few multiple bets here and there such as a Lucky 15 (which also comes with concessions and bonuses on certain sports) and you will throw them off your scent for a while longer.Betting exchanges
A betting exchange is very likely going to be a place where you’ll find the best odds on many of your bets. And as we all know you can’t place multiples there. Also many betting systems will be taking advantage of lay betting that is on offer at exchanges, again something that cant be multiplied.
Unfortunately there isn’t much you can do if this is the case. If one of the betting exchanges is the only place that is offering value for your chosen bet then a single bet it has to be.
When it comes to individual competitive sports, there is nothing that beats the intensity and drama of international Tennis. In the US, tennis is considered to be one of the most exciting and competitive individual sports. The game of tennis has a long and distinguished history. Until recently most Americans did not follow international tennis. With the rise of US tennis stars like Andre Agassi, Pete Sampras and the Williams Sisters, international tennis became a major US spectator sport. Because of the high energy and drama of the game, Tennis Betting has become one of the biggest sports betting markets in the US. With most major tournaments being broadcast or streamed live, US bettors are always guaranteed a good online betting opportunity.
For those who are new to Tennis Betting, the first thing you need to know is that international tennis can be divided up into several categories. To start off with, the sport can bet divided up between singles and doubles. Singles is a matchup between two skilled players playing for the match or tournament. In doubles there are two teams consisting of two players each competing against one another for the same match. To add to this there are both men’s divisions and women’s divisions for singles and doubles. Lastly there is the mixed doubles where one man and one woman pair up to play doubles in a match. In every tournament a bettor can choose any of the categories in which to place his or her bet.
To get a better understanding of tennis betting, a bettor should study the various types of bets that can be placed. For the novice bettor, outright bets or match bets are probably the best place to start. With these types of bets a bettor needs only to choose who will win a match or a tournament. For more experienced bettors the following bets can be placed:
With Tennis betting, there are four major tennis Grand Slams that take place during the year. These are: Wimbledon, the Australian Open, the French Open and the US Open. Grand Slam competitions provide the ultimate betting opportunities for any sports bettor. But before placing a bet on an individual player, bettors should always consider how well that player has been doing in recent matches. Match statistics and player history play a vital role in choosing a player to win the tournament or match. If you want to know where you can get started with online tennis betting, you have come to the right place. To make things easy for you, we have provided a list of Americas top online sports betting sites and carefully reviewed them to ensure that they really are the best in sportsbook business.
In the sporting world, tennis is considered to be one of the most competitive international sporting events. In Australia, tennis is watched and loved my millions of sports fans all around the country. The high energy and intensity of tennis makes it the ideal betting sport. While most Australians bet on the international tournaments such as the Fed Cup, the Australian Open creates a tennis betting frenzy. Not only is it one of the most important tennis championships in world but it is also one of the most popular sporting events in Australia. It is the beginning of the big Grand Slam tournaments and a significant indicator of how certain players will perform in the upcoming tournaments.
To understand tennis betting, a punter should first understand the various types of bets that can be placed. For the novice punter, outright bets or match bets are probably the best place to start. With these types of bets a punter needs only to choose who will win a match or a tournament. For more experienced punters the following bets can be placed:
In tennis betting, it is important to note that competitive tennis can be broken up into various categories. To start off with, the sport can bet divided up between singles and doubles. Singles is a matchup between two players playing for the match or tournament. In doubles there are two teams consisting of two players each competing against one another for the same match. To add to this there are both men’s divisions and women’s divisions for singles and doubles. Lastly there is the mixed doubles where one man and one woman pair up to play doubles in a match. In every tournament punter can choose any of the categories in which to place his or her bonus betting wager.Which Tennis Bonus Bets to Place?
Before placing a bet, a punter should always consider the history and match statistics of the player in question. If a player has sustained an injury and has not played in a while, chances are he or she is still getting back into the swing of things. If a match is played in a player’s home country, then the mental advantage should be given to that player. Some players are better on grass courts while others do better on clay. These are some of the things a punter should take note of in tennis before placing any sizable bet.
If you are looking for the best Australian betting sites, then you are in luck. Right here is where you will find Australian betting sites that give punters the best sign up bonuses and promotions around.
MELBOURNE, Australia — A major sports gambling website suspended betting on Sunday for a mixed doubles match at the Australian Open, raising suspicions of match fixing at one of the world’s most prestigious tennis tournaments.
Ahead of a first-round match pitting Lara Arruabarrena and David Marrero against Andrea Hlavackova and Lukasz Kubot, large amounts of money poured in on what would normally be an obscure contest, said Marco Blume, head of sportsbook at the website, Pinnacle Sports, one of the largest and most influential betting websites in the world.
Nearly all of the money, Blume said, came down for Hlavackova and Kubot, which he said was an indication that the match might be fixed.
Hlavackova and Kubot won, 6-0, 6-3. The first set lasted only 20 minutes.
Arruabarrena, the 33rd-ranked doubles player on the women’s tour, and Marrero, ranked 32nd among men, rejected any possibility of fixing in an interview after the match. Marrero, who like Arruabarrena is from Spain, cited a knee injury in explaining their performance.
The suspicious gambling activity comes with the sport already under intense international scrutiny over possible match fixing. Last week, at the start of the Australian Open, tennis officials were left scrambling when the BBC and BuzzFeed reported that 16 players were repeatedly flagged over suspicions that they had thrown matches but that officials did not discipline them.
The accusations in the report, which centered primarily on matches from several years ago, dominated the first several days of the tournament.
Tennis officials have emphasized that unusual betting patterns alone are not sufficient evidence of match fixing. It is possible, they have said, that someone close to the players could pass inside information — like knowledge of an injury — to professional gamblers, who would then wager accordingly.
A spokeswoman for the International Tennis Federation, the governing body for tennis’s four Grand Slam events, said the organization had not been notified of any suspicious activity. She added that such information would first go to the Tennis Integrity Unit, the sport’s internal watchdog.
Nigel Willerton, a representative for that group, said in an email that it would not comment about the mixed doubles match.
About 13 hours before the match was set to begin, Pinnacle’s traders suspended betting on it, Blume said. He then notified the police in Victoria, the Australian state where the tournament takes place, of possible irregularities.
“The law enforcement agencies are watching this area very closely,” said John Eren, the minister of sport for Victoria. “Of course we’ve seen it in many different sports, not just tennis. And that’s really sad because at the end of the day, 99.9 percent of the sport-loving community don’t behave in that way. It’s important to stamp these out very quickly, and I’m hoping that the relevant authorities will act quickly and swiftly to deal with some of these matters.”
The police said they worked with Australian tennis officials throughout the tournament but would not confirm whether they had been alerted to the irregularities or were investigating this particular match.
Blume said of Pinnacle, “We saw a small number of people placing a large amount of money.” He added: “In context, these matches are rather small. That means that any aggressive betting behavior is very easy to detect on our side.”
Blume said Pinnacle had seen no such betting behavior for any other match at this Australian Open.
First-round mixed doubles matches typically generate little gambling action, but more than $25,000 had been wagered on another website, the betting exchange Betfair, a few hours before the match was scheduled to start. By comparison, three other mixed doubles matches scheduled for similar times on Sunday had generated less than $2,000 combined.
“We have a specialist team who monitor our markets and work closely with sports governing bodies, including the T.I.U., to investigate any suspicious betting patterns that arise,” said James Midmer, a spokesman for Betfair. “Due to the nature of this team’s work, we can’t comment on speculation surrounding individual sports and events.”
Stefano Berlincioni, a sports gambling expert from Italy who writes for the website Last Word on Sports, last year highlighted a doubles match involving Marrero that Berlincioni believed was suspicious. He said Sunday that his analysis of the wagering activity around the Australian Open match indicated it might have been fixed.
Blume, of Pinnacle Sports, said the site opened betting on the match early in the morning, United States time, on Thursday. Hlavackova and Kubot were listed as the favorites to win, but by Saturday morning, Blume said, so much money was pouring in on them that Pinnacle drastically altered its odds to attract betting on Arruabarrena and Marrero. Pinnacle also reduced the maximum amount for a single bet to $100, from $500.
Even still, Blume said, heavy bets kept coming in on the Czech Hlavackova and the Polish Kubot. Just nine minutes after reducing the betting maximum, he said, traders on the Pinnacle floor suspended betting on the match.
Blume said his traders “have a very high sensitivity to all incoming betting,” particularly for a doubles match that would normally attract little action. He added, “Even the slightest disturbance in the betting sets off any alarms on my trading floor.”
Because Pinnacle has such a large volume of bets, the website is a good vehicle for noticing such irregularities, Blume said. (The site has been identified by United States law enforcement authorities as accepting bets illegally in the United States, a charge Pinnacle strongly denies. The site operates in many legal markets and is legally registered in Curaçao, in the southern Caribbean.)
Blume said that odds in other betting markets throughout the world also moved in ways suggesting irregularities.
“We run much like a stock exchange in terms of our day-to-day work,” Blume said. “We see almost everything because almost automatically you come to us one way or another.”
That allows Pinnacle to act as a monitor of sports integrity, Blume said.
Still, the enormous amount of money bet legally and illegally on thousands of websites is ultimately the motivation for match fixing, experts in the field say. A bettor who knows that a match is fixed and who succeeds in putting money on the winning side can win enormous payouts.
The match Sunday was played on Court 6 at Melbourne Park. As the players rose from their chairs for the start of the match, a fan with a Spanish flag draped over his legs shouted, “Vamos, David!”
Kubot held quickly to begin the match. Marrero started his service game well, taking a 30-0 lead, but he then double-faulted, with both serves curling into the net.
Arruabarrena gave the team a 40-15 lead with a smash winner, but faulty play from Marrero quickly undid them: A gentle lob was smashed away by Kubot; a forehand veered wide; a routine cross-court backhand landed far wide of the doubles alley.
Although the male player on a mixed doubles team is often able to attack his female opponent’s serve, Marrero missed all three returns of Hlavackova’s serve in the following game.
After several more unforced errors, Marrero served again, with his team down by 0-5. He opened the game with a double fault. On the third set point, he sent up a soft lob, which Hlavackova smashed to finish the set.
The second set was more competitive. Marrero hit a backhand return winner on a break point and clenched his fist in celebration. But he immediately fell behind, 0-40, in his following service game and faced four break points. After saving the first three, he double-faulted on the fourth, again sending both serves into the net, to level the set at 1-1.
On game point in the next game, an off-balance Marrero scooped his forehand wide. With his team then down by 1-4, Marrero held his serve for the first time in four tries, and he and Arruabarrena broke Hlavackova’s serve in the following game to close the gap in the set to 3-4.
The next two games were won by Hlavackova and Kubot, with Kubot’s strong serve on match point deflecting off Marrero’s frame and into a trash can behind the umpire’s chair.
The two pairs met at the net and clasped hands, and the players exchanged kisses on the cheek with their opponents of the opposite sex.
Berlincioni, the betting expert from Italy, flagged four men’s doubles matches involving Marrero on the ATP Tour that had included suspicious betting movements, at tournaments in Beijing, Shanghai, Vienna and Metz, France.
In addition, before Marrero’s previous three mixed doubles matches at Grand Slam events, all last year, his odds significantly drifted. His chances of winning his match at Wimbledon last year, according to Berlincioni, dropped to 29 percent by the time the match began, from 55 percent initially.
Marrero, who has lost his last 10 mixed doubles matches and has a 7-21 career record in the format, said after Sunday’s loss that he was not able to play his best tennis against a female opponent.
“Normally, when I play, I play full power, in doubles or singles,” said Marrero, who won the doubles title at the 2013 ATP World Tour Finals. “But when I see the lady in front of me, I feel my hand wants to play, but my head says, ‘Be careful.’ This is not a good combination.”
Marrero also said he had had a scan that showed an inflamed tendon in his knee. Although he had played “my 100 percent,” he said, he was also cautious, hoping to avoid an injury that could keep him out “for three, four, five months.” He explained that mixed doubles was “important but not as important, you know?”
Marrero said he felt more pain after hitting an ace in the second game of the second set.
Marrero and Arruabarrena said they had not told anyone but their coaches, tournament doctors and another pair of Spanish players about Marrero’s injury. Still, they said, it was possible that a spectator could have noticed that Marrero was affected by the injury in practice Saturday.
“Someone had to know this,” Arruabarrena said.
Marrero said the only incident of match fixing he had heard about was one infamous match involving Nikolay Davydenko and Martín Vassallo Argüello from 2007, which was rehashed in the recent BBC and BuzzFeed report. (The ATP said in 2008 that it found no evidence of wrongdoing by Davydenko or Argüello.)
“I am professional,” Marrero said. “I try to make my best tennis on the court. If you see all my matches, I don’t like to pull out of tournaments.”
If he had retired midmatch or pulled out of the match before it began, Marrero pointed out, he would not have received any prize money.
Ben Rothenberg reported from Melbourne, and James Glanz from New York. Christopher Clarey contributed reporting from Melbourne, and Joe Drape from New York.Related Coverage More In Tennis
The hype leading up to the tennis match between Billie Jean King and Bobby Riggs on Sept. 20, 1973, was over the top. Here’s a look at the coverage.
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