Baltimore Ravens (13-6 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) vs San Francisco 49'ers (13-4-1 SU, 11-7 ATS)
Date and Time: Sunday February 3rd, 2013 6:30 p.m. EST
Where: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
By TimmieB, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
So you've heard that 'Prop Bets' (Proposition Bets) are a sucker's bet! "It's a waste of money", "No one ever wins Prop Bets", we've all heard the same junk about Prop Bets. But look at it this way: Giants-Pats last year, Super Bowl 46, "Any Team scores a safety anytime" bet went out at +2500 odds and someone got paid on a two-dollar chance. Same Super Bowl: "First Score is a Safety" carrying +10000 odds and another 'Sucker' got paid. And one more time: "Giants score very first score of game for safety" went out at around +18000 and another 'Sucker' is dancing to the bank! Do you think that's a fluke? How about the Ravens walking into Denver and tying Peyton Manning's Broncos with a last minute, Flacco- Heave-Ho on a 3rd and 3 from the Ravens 30 yard-line with 31 seconds left and ZERO timeouts! After that, the Ravens kick a field goal in double OT to win! If you played an OT win Prop Bet you definitely made some cash.
Don't be fooled; there can be some great values found in Prop Bets and you're not a Sucker for playing them. And with most online sportsbooks, you can even suggest your particular 'niche' Prop Bet in an email such as "Total number of tackles for Ray Lewis" or "Over/Under Total field goal tries by 49ers in the first half" and the Sports Book will be open to give odds-if they think it'll make money. Most people play the Spread or the Over/Under because they're used to it and: "Everyone else does it!" Maybe, this year, instead of gripping your chair and hoping your team can hold on and cover, you might be able to relax knowing that Randy Moss already caught a touchdown pass in the first half and you'll make money. Let's look at some of the better Prop Bets being offered for this Super Bowl (47).
For bettors looking at the Ravens to Win and the total being Under, a +700 two-dollar bet on Ray Lewis to be the game's MVP is pretty tempting (net $140)! Let's face it: Love him or hate him, this is Ray's last game. If he is anywhere near the top in tackles, just on his team, and forces a turnover or makes just one, single outstanding play, those voting for the MVP (20% fan vote, 80% Broadcasters and Writers) will give him the Award. Traditionally, the winning team has gotten the Super Bowl MVP every year except one. If you're a San Fran bettor and playing the OVER, Kaepernick is +135 for the award and the Favorite. But look at it this way: If you take San Fran SU you're right at -175 and the Over is -115! If you think Kaepernick is the key then, after all the publicity he's gotten recently, Kaepernick at +135 gives you much better odds to make some loot. If Ed Reed's as good as Bill Belichick thinks (called Reed the best safety ever in the NFL!) and Jim Harbough doesn't get off the gas with his passing attack after 2 or 3 picks, then a two or three interception Game (Reed's specialty) probably will get him the MVP at +6600! If it's 'Ground and Pound'…Gore is sitting at +650 and Ray Rice is at +900. And, in the event a Fluke happens (Kaepernick gets hurt), Alex Smith is hanging around at +10000 for game MVP. Those are some fantastic odds using a common sense approach.
If you think San Fran will dominate then don't play the Spread. Take a "Double Chance" bet at +135 for San Francisco to lead at halftime and lead at the end of the game; you'll make more money that way than playing the spread line. If you think the game might go into OT then a +800 is on your side. A 'Ground and Pound' game usually gets rushing touchdowns so you might consider a "First Scorer" bet (Player to score first touchdown) with Gore at +600, Rice at +700, Crabtree at +750, Boldin at +900 and the Baltimore Ravens defense at +2500. But let's say Frank Gore breaks out on a 45 plus yard run down to the Ravens 3 yard line. Gore is spent, comes out, LaMichael James comes in "BadaBoom": touchdown James off right tackle----+2200 for first touchdown scorer!
Thinking how each coach will coach and the Players involved and you might find a very good coach and gambler, Jim Harbough, throwing an open drive 'GO Route' to Randy Moss and there it is: Moss +1600. Tons of value can be cashed-in on during the Super Bowl. Think about the teams, the coaches their strategies then consider your wife's patience, your patience and make a play accordingly. If you know San Fran will dominate then play the Prop Bet "Double Chance" and make 60% more money than simply playing the Spread. It's all about cashing Benjamins and only 'Suckers' won't look at the possibilities that Prop Bets offer. I also have this sneaking suspicion that the bad rap that Prop Bets get is from Bookies and Sports Books that hope you won't look at the numbers and trends to gain an Edge over them. Have a great Super Bowl! As for me, TimmyB, I'm going with Vernon Davis and Dennis Pitta as 'First Touchdown Scorers' at +900 for both… and Ray Lewis for MVP. Good Luck!
TimmieB's Prop Bet Pick: Ray Lewis Game MVP and Vernon Davis/Dennis Pitta 1st Touchdown Scorers. You can find all of these proposition wagers and more at one of the web's best sportsbooks: GTBets (They offer Predictem readers a "deposit $100 and get $100 free bonus!)Additional NFL Football Betting Previews Additional NFL Week 7 Game Previews
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If you like to take action on the Super Bowl, you likely already know this: The point spread rarely comes into play. Just bet the house—please, don't—and pick a winner.
We take a look at the early line, odds and prop bets to help you cash some Las Vegas tickets Sunday, Feb. 2 as the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks match up in Super Bowl XLVIII at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
As Vegas Insider points out, in only six of 47 past Super Bowls has the favorite won the game but failed to cover the point spread: 2009, 2005, 2004, 1996, 1989 and 1976. Only twice have the oddsmakers been on the money, resulting in a push or a tie: 2000 and 1997.
Super Bowl favorites are 33-14 straight up and 26-17-2 against the spread. The over/under is a dead even 23-23 (VI didn't have a total available from Super Bowl I).
The good news for Seattle Seahawks backers, perhaps, is the underdog has cashed in five of the past six and nine of the past 12 Super Bowls, including the past two. Denver is an early 3-point favorite and Seattle is getting +120 on the money line, according to numerous sources, including BetEagle.com and Bovada.lv.
Had you placed a future bet on the Super Bowl winner a few weeks ago, though, you would have gotten the AFC as a 2.5-point underdog. Now that we know the matchup, most of the early money has gone on the Broncos, as Kevin Bradley, sports book manager of Bovada.lv, explains:
It was the perfect storm for the book on Sunday, as we had the right side of both games and took off the table any Super Bowl future book exposure that could have been damaging. While money over the last few weeks moved to an early Super Bowl line of NFC -2.5, Denver's strong performance against New England combined with the Hawks grind-'em-out style of football puts Denver at -3, and currently two thirds of the early money is on them to cover.
Here is the complete Super Bowl betting history, according to Vegas Insider:
If you're looking more recent betting data than Super Bowl history, here it is courtesy of Vegas Insider:
It is not uncommon to see good teams with solid numbers against the spread (ATS), particularly if you win the less sexier way. with defense like the Seahawks do. Denver is 11-6-1 ATS, while the Seahawks are slightly better at 12-6. On the total, the Broncos have gone over 11 of 18 times, while the Seahawks have been under more often (12 of 18).
The Seahawks have particularly good numbers ATS versus teams with winning records, going 13-4 in his past 17, as Vegas Insider reports.
Here are the Broncos' betting results this season:
Here are the Seahawks betting results this season:
Recent Super Bowl history has the total as a 50-50 proposition, just as much as the 23-23 record overall. The over and under have alternated winners each of the past six years. If you are looking for that trend to continue, you need to side with the under.
Not only that, but both the Broncos and Seahawks have played under in their four playoff games. In fact, Seattle's games have gone under in each of the past seven—Denver in each of the past four.
Also, a Super Bowl in New Jersey at the start of February figures to leave some rare inclement weather. The under tends to be a popular bet in those conditions.
Jay Rood, the sports book director of the MGM Mirage, told Bloomberg's Erik Matuszewski:
Mostly people like to bet unders. I could see this year more of them saying, 'We're going to bet the under, and if the weather is bad, maybe it will work to our benefit. If it's not, we'll work with it.
Perhaps the best part of betting on the Super Bowl are the prop bets. You can bet on the coin toss to the final game MVP—and everything in between. Prop bets make up almost 60 percent of the action at some Las Vegas sports books, Bloomberg's Matuszewski reports.
The rare outdoor, wintry-weather Super Bowl delayed Las Vegas from releasing a lot of the prop bets, Rood told Matuszewski on Monday.
Everything, except for the basic stuff, is going to (sic) pushed back a day or two so we can get a much more clearer picture of what the weather is going to be like. If we get a forecast that says there's absolutely no chance that the weather is going to be that impactful, as far as snow or whatever, we might accelerate that. But probably not.
If you wanted some early advice, Pro Football Talk produced this early, brief video on some of their prop picks.
And, if you want to bet on the weather, Las Vegas will have that, too.
Courtesy of Bovada.lv: Will it snow? Yes is getting +300, while No is -500. The over/under on the temperature at kickoff is 34 degrees, while the over/under on the in-game low is 31 (both in Fahrenheit).
NFL games usually come down to the quarterbacks, so it is no surprise Bovada's early odds on the Most Valuable Player favor Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson.
Here are the early odds on Super Bowl XLVIII MVP, according to sports publicist Jimmy Shapiro:
Shapiro says Bovada.lv will have a list of close to 500 props. In fact, if you want to bet on something, Shapiro might even have Bovada get it for you if it doesn't already exist!
Here is a sample of the prop-bet minutiae:
How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the US National Anthem?
Over 2 minutes 30 seconds EVEN (1/1)
Under 2 minutes 30 seconds -140 (5/7)
Will Renee Fleming forget or omit at least one word of the official US National Anthem?
Will Renee Fleming wear gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem?
If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem what color will they be?
Any Other Color 3/1
Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?
How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game?
How many times will Archie Manning be shown on TV during the game?
How many times will Eli Manning be shown on TV during the game?
What will be said more during the game?
Reference to Denver Broncos No. 1 or Best Offense -110
Reference to Seattle Seahawks No. 1 or Best Defense -110
Which coach will be mentioned first by name after kickoff?
Pete Carroll -110
Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff?
Erin Andrews -140 (5/7)
Pam Oliver EVEN (1/1)
Will Michael Crabtree mention Richard Sherman in a tweet during the Super Bowl from kickoff until final whistle?
How many times will "12th man" be said during the game?
How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game?
Will the announcers say the word "Marijuana" during the game?
Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB?
Sportsbook.ag has the following props listed as of Thursday morning, Jan. 23:
Team to Win the Coin Toss
Score in the First Six Minutes
First Score of the Game Will Be
Seahawks +.5 (-140) / +110 ML
Broncos -.5 (+120) / -130 ML
Seahawks +1.5 (-110) / +115 ML
Broncos -1.5 (-110) / -135 ML
Weather effects tend to be overrated and might just make the line more reasonable, particularly for those that dismiss Manning's history in poor weather conditions. It is real early to try to forecast the East Rutherford, N.J., conditions, but Accuweather lists Feb. 2 to be high of 40, low of 25, possible snow showers and only a slight breeze in the single digits (mph).
Sloppier conditions would figure to favor Seattle and its defense, although defenders slipping in the snow can make Manning's quartet of receivers, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas, real tough to stay with.
The betting public isn't always right—Las Vegas casinos have booming business for a reason—but going with Manning's Super Bowl experience over the brash, trash talking of Richard Sherman and the Seahawks is my play if you're laying some early action. Parlay Denver (-3) with the over (47) and Manning as game MVP.
Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report this season. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.
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We’re only a month away from the 2013 NFL Super Bowl, and there are already a lot of things you can bet. The playoffs are an exciting time, and we’ll list the odds and props for this weekend games tomorrow. Today we’re just talking Super Bowl 47 in New Orleans. It’s only 31 days away. So without further ado, here are the most current odds for the Super Bowl.
Odds to win the 2013 Super Bowl XLVII
Denver Broncos 11/4
New England Patriots 4/1
San Francisco 49ers 6/1
Atlanta Falcons 7/1
Green Bay Packers 8/1
Seattle Seahawks 11/1
Houston Texans 15/1
Washington Redskins 18/1
Baltimore Ravens 22/1
Minnesota Vikings 40/1
Cincinnati Bengals 45/1
Indianapolis Colts 45/1
As you can see the Denver Broncos are currently the favorite to win the big game. They ended the season 13-3, winning their last 11 games. That 11 game run included wins over the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, so it wasn’t a cake walk. Their three losses this year came from other playoff teams. The Atlanta Falcons, Houston Texans and New England Patriots all beat the Broncos a loss. These teams should be interesting matchups if they meet in the playoffs.
The second favorite is the New England Patriots. They finished the year at 12-4, and like the Broncos, they have a first round bye. (Neither the Patriots or Broncos play this weekend). New England had a tough schedule this year, and they walked away with wins over Denver, the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans. They lost to three playoff teams this year: The San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens and the Seattle Seahawks.
The other two teams with first round byes round out the top four favorites. The San Francisco 49ers and the Atlanta Falcons were the top two teams in the NFC. The Falcons finished the year at 13-3 and the 49ers ended 11-4-1 (with a tie against the Rams). Either of these teams could easy win the NFC and go to the Super Bowl.
The remaining 8 teams all pay this weekend. The Bengals and the Colts have to longest odds, but as the Giants proved last year, any playoff team can get hot and go on to win the Super Bowl.
Below is the early line for the Super Bowl. It seems like Las Vegas likes the AFC teams a little more. This makes sense as both the Broncos and Patriots are in the AFC.
Here we list the odds for the exact Super Bowl matchup. If you make this bet, you’re betting which two teams will make it to the Super Bowl, and not which team will win the Super Bowl. There are some great odds here. For example, a Colts/Vikings Super Bowl pays 350-1. If you bet $10 on this and it happened, you would win $3,500.
2013 Super Bowl XLVII – Exact Super Bowl Matchups
Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers 13/2
Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons 7/1
New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers 15/2
New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons 8/1
Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers 17/2
New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers 10/1
Denver Broncos vs Seattle Seahawks 12/1
New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks 15/1
Denver Broncos vs Washington Redskins 22/1
Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers 25/1
New England Patriots vs Washington Redskins 25/1
Houston Texans vs Atlanta Falcons 28/1
Houston Texans vs Green Bay Packers 33/1
Baltimore Ravens vs San Francisco 49ers 35/1
Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons 40/1
Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings 40/1
New England Patriots vs Minnesota Vikings 45/1
Baltimore Ravens vs Green Bay Packers 50/1
Houston Texans vs Seattle Seahawks 50/1
Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers 60/1
Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons 65/1
Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers 70/1
Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks 75/1
Houston Texans vs Washington Redskins 75/1
Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons 75/1
Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers 85/1
Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers 90/1
Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Redskins 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks 125/1
Indianapolis Colts vs Seattle Seahawks 125/1
Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings 150/1
Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Redskins 175/1
Baltimore Ravens vs Minnesota Vikings 200/1
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Redskins 200/1
Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings 350/1
Indianapolis Colts vs Minnesota Vikings 350/1
This is a complete list of bets that you can make on the Super Bowl as of now. Of course you can also make a lot of bets on this weekend’s games (including prop bets). We’ll be back with a list of those tomorrow.
Thanks for visiting out site, and please contact us if you have any questions about betting on the NFL Super Bowl. We are here to help you. Thanks!
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